According to the oracles at the Gartner Group, a research company specializing in technology industries, the blogging revolution is ending.
Their researchers are predicting that the tremendous growth in the number of blogs will end in 2007, peaking at around 100 million worldwide.
The reason: Most people who would ever dabble with Web journals already have. Those who love it are committed to keeping it up, while others have gotten bored and moved on, said Daryl Plummer, chief Gartner fellow.
Even if they’re right, 100 million is still a pretty large crowd of independent (mostly) voices. Enough to force some major changes to the way the world communicates.
However, it would be interesting to know on what they base their forecast. Or how they define “blogging”.
I wonder if they took into consideration that a large part of the world still doesn’t have regular, reliable access to the web. And that some of them may want to join the conversation when they do.
Not to mention that the tools for creating a presence on the net are constantly becoming easier to use.
But that’s the problem with predicting the future. It’s hard to account for all the factors.